Michael The Moviegoer’s Oscar Predictions 2009-2010:
Almost nobody is predicting that “Inglourious Basterds” will win Best Picture. But I’m going to risk it for the following reasons.
If “Avatar” wins, it will be the first Best Picture win since “Titanic” that doesn’t have a screenplay nomination. If “The Hurt Locker” wins, it will be the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner in the entire history of the Oscars (adjusted for inflation of course).
Traditionally, a Best Picture winner also wins awards in other top categories. But “Avatar” has no screenplay or acting nominations, and Jeremy Renner from “The Hurt Locker” cannot beat Jeff Bridges. “Inglourious Basterds” will have a win for Supporting Actor Christoph Waltz, and possibly a screenplay win as well.
The actors make up the largest voting body of the Academy, and SAG (their own guild) gave their Best Picture award (for ensemble cast) to “Inglourious Basterds”.
“Inglourious Basterds” is the second most-nominated film this year with 8 nominations.
Science Fiction films never win Best Picture. No matter how popular they are. “Star Wars” and “E.T.” both did not win Best Picture.
Finally, “Inglourious Basterds” is Harvey Weinstein’s baby this year. Remember when Weinstein surprised everyone with “Shakespeare In Love” beating the favorite “Saving Private Ryan” for Best Picture?
With ten Best Picture nominations instead of the usual five, the five without Director nominations can be considered irrelevant in this race. But it’s really a 3-way race between “Avatar”, “The Hurt Locker” and “Inglourious Basterds”. I’m going with the Basterds despite nobody agreeing with me. A few years ago, I similary predicted a win for “Crash” when nobody else did, and I was right.
But with voting procedures changed this year, I could be wrong. We’ll know in a few days.
Here’s my full list of Oscar predictions ranked in order of possibility.
BEST PICTURE:
1) Inglourious Basterds
2) The Hurt Locker
3) Avatar
4) Up In The Air
5) Precious
… a tie for 10th place among the films with no director nomination…
10a) District 9
10b) The Blind Side
10c) Up
10d) An Education
10f) A Serious Man
BEST DIRECTOR:
1) Kathryn Bigelow – “The Hurt Locker”
2) James Cameron – “Avatar”
3) Quentin Tarantino – “Inglourious Basterds”
4) Lee Daniels – “Precious”
5) Jason Reitman – “Up In The Air”
BEST ACTOR:
1) Jeff Bridges – “Crazy Heart”
2) George Clooney – “Up In The Air”
3) Colin Firth – “A Single Man”
4) Morgan Freeman – “Invictus”
5) Jeremy Renner – “The Hurt Locker”
BEST ACTRESS:
1) Meryl Streep – “Julie & Julia”
2) Sandra Bullock – “The Blind Side”
3) Carey Mulligan – “An Education”
4) Gabourey Sidibe – “Precious”
5) Helen Mirren – “The Last Station”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1) Christoph Waltz – “Inglourious Basterds”
2) Christopher Plummer – “The Last Station”
3) Woody Harrelson – “The Messenger”
4) Stanley Tucci – “The Lovely Bones”
5) Matt Damon – “Invictus”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1) Mo’Nique – “Precious”
2) Anna Kendrick – “Up In The Air”
3) Vera Farmiga – “Up In The Air”
4) Penelope Cruz – “Nine”
5) Maggie Gyllenhaal – “Crazy Heart”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1) Inglourious Basterds
2) The Hurt Locker
3) The Messenger
4) Up
5) A Serious Man
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1) Up In The Air
2) Precious
3) District 9
4) An Education
5) In The Loop
BEST MUSIC:
1) Up
2) Avatar
3) Fantastic Mr. Fox
4) Sherlock Holmes
5) The Hurt Locker
BEST SONG:
1) The Weary Kind – “Crazy Heart”
2) Take It All – “Nine”
3) Almost There – “The Princess & The Frog”
4) Down In New Orleans – “The Princess & The Frog”
5) Loin De Paname – “Paris 36”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
1) Inglourious Basterds
2) The Hurt Locker
3) Avatar
4) The White Ribbon
5) Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince
BEST EDITING:
1) The Hurt Locker
2) Inglourious Basterds
3) Avatar
4) District 9
5) Precious
BEST ART DIRECTION:
1) Avatar
2) Nine
3) The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
4) The Young Victoria
5) Sherlock Holmes
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
1) The Young Victoria
2) Coco Before Chanel
3) Nine
4) The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
5) Bright Star
BEST MAKE-UP:
1) Star Trek
2) The Young Victoria
3) Il Divo
BEST SOUND EDITING:
1) Avatar
2) The Hurt Locker
3) Inglourious Basterds
4) Up
5) Star Trek
BEST SOUND MIXING:
1) Avatar
2) The Hurt Locker
3) Inglourious Basterds
4) Star Trek
5) Transformers 2
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
1) Avatar
2) District 9
3) Star Trek
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
1) The White Ribbon
2) A Prophet
3) El Secreto De Sus Ojos
4) Ajami
5) The Milk Of Sorrow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
1) Up
2) Fantastic Mr. Fox
3) The Princess & The Frog
4) Coraline
5) The Secret Of Kells
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
1) A Matter Of Loaf And Death
2) Logorama
3) French Roast
4) The Lady And The Reaper
5) Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
1) The Cove
2) Food, Inc.
3) The Most Dangerous Man In America
4) Burma VJ
5) Which Way Home
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
1) China’s Unnatural Disaster
2) Music By Prudence
3) The Last Truck
4) Rabbit A La Berlin
5) The Last Campaign Of Gov. Booth Gardner
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT:
1) Kavi
2) The New Tenants
3) The Door
4) Instead Of Abracadabra
5) Miracle Fish
Oscar Predictions made on March 1, 2010, by Michael The Moviegoer.
Watch The Oscars on Sunday, March 7, 2010.
